Consumer Confidence Improves, But Jobs Numbers Hard to Predict

It’s numbers week in the U.S. again. The time of the month when the official government employment data makes its appearance, influencing stock markets worldwide, and corporate hiring decisions nationally.

Predictions of what Friday’s labor report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will show are already beginning to appear. A Dow Jones Newswire survey of economists says that on average they expect the U.S. to have lost 110,000 jobs during August. That’s mostly due to the continuing layoff of temporary Census workers.

Because of the massive Census hiring, analysts have been paying closer attention to developments in private sector hiring. In July, the BLS said 71,000 non-government jobs were created, though the Census layoffs resulted in a total loss of 141,000 jobs. (Both those numbers are likely to be adjusted in the Friday release.)

Tomorrow, we get a preview of what may be in store when ADP releases its National Employment Report. The payroll processor uses its data to estimate the monthly change in private sector employment. While the numbers are usually lower than the government’s, they tend to accurately predict whether jobs were added or lost.

There’s not much consensus among the market blogs and advisory services that try to crystal-ball the report. Zacks Investment Research says the ADP report will show 15,000 jobs lost in August. MF Global UK Limited, meanwhile, is looking for a gain of 13,000.

Once the report is released, which is usually just before the business day starts on the East Coast, we’ll see new predictions of what Friday’s BLS report will contain.

Article Continues Below

Also out in the morning will be  The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online Data Series. It counts the number of online job postings in total, and the number of new listings.

The Help Wanted series, and Monster’s Employment Index (out Thursday) help show the national hiring trend. The Monster Index has been moving up slowly, but consistently, since the beginning of the year. The Help Wanted numbers are more erratic, though the total number of job ads online has risen by almost 260,00 since January.

As always, surprises are not unusual. For instance, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, released this morning, improved to 53.5 from a revised 51 in July. That was a little better than what some economists were expecting.

John Zappe is the editor of and a contributing editor of John was a newspaper reporter and editor until his geek gene lead him to launch his first website in 1994. He developed and managed online newspaper employment sites and sold advertising services to recruiters and employers. Before joining ERE Media in 2006, John was a senior consultant and analyst with Advanced Interactive Media and previously was Vice President of Digital Media for the Los Angeles Newspaper Group.

Besides writing for ERE, John consults with staffing firms and employment agencies, providing content and managing their social media programs. He also works with organizations and businesses to assist with audience development and marketing. In his spare time  he can be found hiking in the California mountains or competing in canine agility and obedience competitions.

You can contact him here.


4 Comments on “Consumer Confidence Improves, But Jobs Numbers Hard to Predict

  1. As we stand in the Hen House watching the foxes report on our progress, I would recommend waiting for the revised numbers before running outside to check the weather. Even then… good luck with that.

    Anybody interested in betting on the Consumer Confidence Index… which surveys 5,000 households… and then publishes for the general consumption of 300,000,000+ Americans?

    How about the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online Data Series… which, by design, EXCLUDES corporate sites completely?

    Still unsure? Try the ADP National Employment Report… which uses its own customers to compile the data. Perhaps the most accurate of all the numbers (including BLS) but still; how many small businesses – the true growth engine -do you think contract-out payroll services? And of those, which use ADP?

    To [poorly] paraphrase a famous line: “Numbers, numbers everywhere… but they’ve missed the point, I think.”

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *