Job Postings Rise as Market Surges on Better Than Expected News

There’s good news on this, the first day of June. The Conference Board reports this morning that online job postings rose last month by the largest amount in more than two years. It’s the first increase in the Help-Wanted Online Data Series in six months.

In May, there were 250,000 more jobs posted online than in April. The 8 percent increase brought the number of advertised jobs online to 3,367,000. Though modest, the increase dwarfs the 21,000 job posting gain The Conference Board reported in October 2008.

“The May bounce in labor demand is a very welcome sign,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “Labor demand typically leads the trend in both employment and unemployment, so positive signals on labor demand are always important.”

While some of The Conference Board’s four U.S. regions showed more improvement than others, all had more online jobs advertised in May than in April. This extended to the state level where 43 states had more jobs.

With every silver lining there comes the dark cloud. Even with the increase, the number of online vacancies is 1,152,000, or 25 percent, below last year’s advertised openings. Overall in the U.S., as of April there were 4.4 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy, according to The Conference Board.

That picture will undoubtedly change Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly employment report for May. Wanted Technologies, which gathers the data for The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index, predicts the BLS will report the U.S. economy gave up 565,000 jobs in the month, a number that is about 6.6 percent higher than what the company says is the consensus of economists.

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Economic predicting, however, is a dicey business, bearing more than a passing resemblance to crystal-ball gazing. Besides The Conference Board’s upbeat report this morning, other reports from the Institute of Supply Management and the government showed declines in certain watched indicators, but because they were less than expected, stock prices are up by triple digits.

The ISM reported that manufacturing continued to shrink during May, but by at a rate less than in prior months. A construction report from the government showed spending in April rose for the second month in a row. The increase was the largest in eight months. And, though consumer spending fell in April, the decline was less than had been predicted.

Recruiters are also feeling more confident that we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. ExecuNet’s Recruiter Confidence Index, released today, surged 16 points during May. It was the the third increase in as many months. The index surveys executive search recruiters who are part of the ExecuNet network on their expectations for increases in search assignments.

Of the 143 executive recruiters surveyed, 57 percent are confident or very confident the executive employment market will improve in the next six months; 67 percent of the survey respondents expect at least a 10 percent increase in corporate search assignments.

John Zappe is the editor of TLNT.com and a contributing editor of ERE.net. John was a newspaper reporter and editor until his geek gene lead him to launch his first website in 1994. He developed and managed online newspaper employment sites and sold advertising services to recruiters and employers. Before joining ERE Media in 2006, John was a senior consultant and analyst with Advanced Interactive Media and previously was Vice President of Digital Media for the Los Angeles Newspaper Group.

Besides writing for ERE, John consults with staffing firms and employment agencies, providing content and managing their social media programs. He also works with organizations and businesses to assist with audience development and marketing. In his spare time  he can be found hiking in the California mountains or competing in canine agility and obedience competitions.

You can contact him here.

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7 Comments on “Job Postings Rise as Market Surges on Better Than Expected News

  1. Todd –

    The leading indicator for those (Nat’l Bureau of Economic Analists) who told us, ‘Oh, by the way the Recession started 10 mos ago’ last August when we might have had to wait till Jan to see 2 consecutive negative quarters, say the recession had ended per the April 9th 4 wk moving average peak of Jobless claims (658k, 627k last week)- that every recession has ended within 4 weeks of that – certainly good news from seemingly a lagging indicator (unemployment that is still rising) indicative of employers being behind the 8 ball.

    More next week at the ERE Las Vegas gig next Friday at 9:15 AM.
    Jon

  2. Thanks Jon. Good post. Let’s hope that indicator (moving average peak of jobless claims) is right again. Your Vegas talk is timely. Todd

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