Lower Job Loss Expected In Friday’s BLS Report

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Economists are expecting that Friday’s labor report will show the lowest job loss in a year even as the unemployment rate rises.

A Bloomberg survey of 79 economists pegs the August job loss at 230,000 and the unemployment rate at 9.5 percent for the month. The last time the U.S. economy lost that few jobs was August 2008 and the last time the economy actually created jobs was in January of 2008. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

An ADP report released Wednesday said private, nonfarm employment decreased by 298,000 jobs, which, the payroll management firm said, was the smallest decrease since September of last year.

ADP’s National Employment Report is considered a bell cow for the monthly BLS report, which is typically released a few days after. The BLS includes government jobs;  ADP does not.

Indices 9.3The optimism in the economic predictions and the improvement suggested in the ADP report got additional support this morning when Monster Worldwide reported a jump in its monthly index. The index rose to 121 in August from 114 in July, its highest point since February. The 6 percent jump is also the highest monthly rate of increase since August 2005.

“The significant jump in the Monster Employment Index in August offers encouraging signs of improvement in the U.S. economy with the demand for managers and professionals as well as sales and office workers picking up in time for the fall hiring season,” said Jesse Harriott, senior vice president and chief knowledge officer at Monster Worldwide.

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Compiled from a survey of online job postings, the Monster Index showed job availability improved everywhere in the country, but especially in New England where the regional index climbed by 10 points. In terms of per capita online job availability, Alaska topped the nation, followed by Montana, Maryland, Virginia, and Massachusetts.

The industry sectors showing the biggest gain in online job postings were retail, up by 13 points; managerial positions, up by nine points; and arts, entertainment and recreation, starting from a very low 37 points, added seven, as did the utility sector, which now has an index of 105.

The Conference Board previously reported that Help Wanted Online Data Series showed a gain of 169,000 advertised vacancies in August, while the Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose almost seven points over July and now stands at 54.1, the best its been since May.

John Zappe is the editor of TLNT.com and a contributing editor of ERE.net. John was a newspaper reporter and editor until his geek gene lead him to launch his first website in 1994. He developed and managed online newspaper employment sites and sold advertising services to recruiters and employers. Before joining ERE Media in 2006, John was a senior consultant and analyst with Advanced Interactive Media and previously was Vice President of Digital Media for the Los Angeles Newspaper Group.

Besides writing for ERE, John consults with staffing firms and employment agencies, providing content and managing their social media programs. He also works with organizations and businesses to assist with audience development and marketing. In his spare time  he can be found hiking in the California mountains or competing in canine agility and obedience competitions.

You can contact him here.


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