Based on what the approximately 18,000 U.S. employers are reporting, Manpower’s quarterly Employment Outlook Survey predicts an 8 percent overall increase in hiring in the country over the third quarter last year.
“Although employers are not signaling dramatic upswings in hiring plans, there does seem to be hiring energy developing based on sustained year-over-year growth,” said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup president of the Americas.
If that was all he said, it would be better news than many of the other economic reports of the last several weeks. However, Prising tempered his comments, adding:
This is also the 11th consecutive quarter with a single-digit Net Employment Outlook, indicating a level of caution not seen among employers in the last 30 years of data. This fact, along with many clouds still on the economic horizon, may explain the tepid labor market growth we have seen so far.
Considering the lukewarm recovery the world is in — you see the report about China’s growth slowing as inflation grows? — any good news about employment is welcome. Over the last four quarters, the Manpower survey has accurately predicted the steady increase in hiring. Despite the dismal May numbers, that so far appears to be the case. The report also tracks with other indicators of steady employment improvement.
Released Tuesday, the Manpower survey says most major industry groups in the U.S. will hire more people than in the year before. Only government and education and health services will shrink. Government payrolls, primarily at the state and local levels, have been shrinking for many months. The education and health services sector is a little surprising since healthcare has been a growth area. However, it’s likely influenced by cutbacks in education.
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Globally, Manpower says employment growth will continue to be strongest in the Asia-Pacific region, with India a hiring hot spot. However, five of the eight Asia Pacific countries and territories in the survey showed some weakening from three months ago.
Overall, says Manpower, which surveyed more than 63,000 employers worldwide, hiring in the third quarter will be strongest in India, Brazil, Taiwan and Turkey. Spain, Greece, Italy and Ireland are in the negative in their hiring forecasts, meaning less hiring than in the same quarter a year before.
Reports for individual countries is available here.